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to take the delayed effect of balance sheet reduction conducted earlier into its consideration of rate cuts. The current phase-out of balanc
上海会所e sheet reduction already has some easing effect, and only after the balance sheet reduction ends in September, can its impact become clearer.
By incorporating that impact into consideration, the Fed can draw up a better rate cut plan that maximizes effects of the policy mix.上海会所
Thirdly, the market may have overestimated how much the Fed will cut the rates. There may be no more than three rate cuts by the end of 2020.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard – the major advocate of this
round of rate cut – has suggested the use of the modern-day Taylor rule, which fairly well explains th上海会所
e Fed’s interest rate decisions. Even based on this model adopted by dovish Fed officials, we found that the degree of rate cuts may be weaker than m
上海会所arket expectation for quite some time going forward: at most one cut by the end of this year and likely two or three cuts by the end of 2020.
By contrast, before the June FOMC meeting, the market expected a higher-than-85-percent chance of more than one rate cut by the
end of this year as well as an about 60-percent chance of more than three cuts by the end of 2020, according to Bloomberg data.上海会所品茶微信
In conclusion, we think as economic downside pressure gradually emerges, the Fed will have to kick off the rate cut cycle. But the rate cut si上海会所品茶微信
gnal, timing and degree may not measure up to the market expectation. Therefore, two future developments appear possible:
First, investor sentiment can reverse drastically if the Fed’s action fails to meet market expec上海会所品茶微信
tation. Considering the market has fully priced in the unrealistic expectation of rate cuts sinc
e early June, any reversal of expectation can lead to short-term fluctuations of key price signals such as the US Treasury yield cu
rve, the US Dollar Index, and the gold price, which may pose extensive spillover shocks to asset portfolios.
Second, the long-term trend of rate cuts will continue even if the market expectation reverses. In the long
run, the Fed is expected to proceed with rate cuts in a fairly slow and smooth way. This will enlarge the monetary policy room of ot
her major economies and expedite the shift toward an easing global monetary environment, which may in turn lift the sen
timent of global stock markets and ease any currency risk of emerging markets gradually.
Cheng Shi is the managing director, head of research and chief economist of ICBC Interna
tional Holdings Ltd.Qian Zhijun is a senior economist of ICBC International Holdings Ltd.
that instead of imposing ideas on their children, parents should learn more about what their ch
ildren want, according to the survey, which covered 1,953 unmarried young people.
According to Ling Zi, a marriage consultant, it does more harm than good for parents to be overly involved in children’s ma
rriages. “It shows the distrust of the parents, and transfers their anxiety to their children,” said Ling.
It has become common in China for pushy parents to look for spouses for their children who are too busy or slow in finding love, the paper said.
s the race to replace Theresa May as Conservative Party leader and British prime minister reach
es the final two candidates, China Daily looks at the candidates: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt.
Johnson has long been one of the loudest voices supporting Brexit, a
nd had the backing of Donald Trump. Hunt is a converted Remain supporter.
After Conservative MPs narrowed 10 candidates down to the final tw
o, it is now up to party members nationwide to choose the next occupant of 10 Downing Street.
in 上海千花坊女神会所the region, and local authorities must create an enabling environment for starting and doing business in the Northeast, he said.
The three provinces in the Northeast－Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang－saw GDP growt
h of 5.7, 4.5 and 4.7 percent last year, which is below the national average of 6.6 percent.
Meanwhile, the three provinces have also seen a continuous outflow of working-age citizens. In Liaoning, the number of peo
ple aged between 16 and 59 was down by 492,000 last year, according to the Liaoning Bureau of Statistics.he United Sta
tes’ trade deficit with China is not a matter of simple, objective truth. It has been brought on by actions of the US i
tself — a combination of export controls, market restrictions, competition, trade policies, currency dominance and other f
actors — officials and experts said in response to a report from the Ministry of Commerce on Thursday.
success of winning the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2012, Zhang Qinghua, professor at Beijing Normal University, believes that Mo’s way of dealing with this h
as been to make a return to his hometown, a village in Gaomi, Shandong province, both in reality and spiritually.
Mo didn’t publish any new work in the five years following the award, when in 2017 he
released several short stories, poems and theater works, mainly reminiscing about his hometown.
Unlike Mo’s former novels, Peking University professor Chen Xiaoming notes th
at his new works are more reserved, realistic stylistically and employ more simple language. Literary cri
tic Li Jingze is impressed that Mo has remained acutely sensitive to the realities of urban and rural life.
US states continue to value trade relations with China, despite ongoing tensions at the i
nternational level, and they hope tensions will be resolved through negotiations.
“I’m very optimistic on the China-US trade relationship,” Cyrus Habib, lieutenant governor of Washington, said in an inter
view with China Daily as he was attending the Fifth China-US Governors Forum in Lexington, Kentucky, last week.
China is the state of Washington’s top trading partner, with more than 20 percent of the state’s expor
ts going to China, and around 30 percent of its imports came from China in 2018, according to the US Census Bureau.
“It’s truly something that touches every part of our state,” said Habib. “And that went from the i
nformation communication technology sector and manufacturing sector all the way to the agricultural industry and tourism.”
At least four deaths have been blamed on crowding during the climbs, Agence France-Presse reported.
People should be well prepared to handle Qomolangma’s traffic jams which are common phenomena along climbing paths, said alpinists who had reached the summit.
“Although the news about the jam on Qomolangma this year has gone viral, people should understand that it happens every year during the brief cl
imbing window. Knowing what to do when climbers jam the narrow paths should be incl
uded in their training well in advance,” said Ma Liyamu, who reached the top of Qomolangma, the world’s ta
llest mountain at 8,848 meters, on May 22 and was also held up by the crowds on her descent.
She is the leader of a mountaineering team of three Chinese women w
ho scaled Qomolangma. They launched their expedition from Nepal, which issued 381 cli
mbing permits for the season that concludes this week. Nepal’s permits this season cost $11,000 each.